Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

With the season in view, some highly touted prospects have already been informed their Little League dreams will become big-time reality this week. The youth movement has begun in Detroit with both Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal making the Tigers' roster for the Tigers and likely starting in the rotation. Triston McKenzie with Cleveland and Ian Anderson in Atlanta have locked up starting slots and will look to continue trending upwards after dazzling debuts in 2020. Dylan Carlson will be the Cardinals' centerfielder on Opening Day and was likely already ticketed for a starting outfield spot even before Harrison Bader's injury. Bobby Dalbec has been crushing homers for the Red Sox and cementing his role as Boston's first baseman when camp breaks. Andrew Vaughn made the White Sox as their likely DH, but could take on an even more expanded role due to the unfortunate injury to Eloy Jimenez. Leody Taveras starts with the big club for the Rangers and could bat leadoff. Jazz Chisholm of the Marlins will start at second base for the Marlins. And in Cincinnati, Jonathan India continues to vie for a starting job.

Happy Opening Day from the Minor League Barometer!

UPGRADE

Julio Rodriguez, OF, SEA – Kudos to Taylor Trammell, a former top prospect who has moved around a lot in recent seasons but made the roster for the M's out of camp and should start in the outfield. Although he could just be a placeholder for Rodriguez, a star in the making who has been posting top-tier exit velocities this spring. He has more than held his own at the dish by slashing .296/.406/.593 with two home runs, four RBI and two steals. Rodriguez projects for mammoth power, but has also not struck out a lot despite facing big-league caliber pitchers. He's also got some speed and a cannon for an arm, meaning he is awfully close to that glorified five-tool prospect label. A future outfielder of Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic and Rodriguez has Mariners fans salivating.  And while Rodriguez will be the last to arrive on the scene, he could end up being the best of the trio.

Nolan Jones, 1B/OF, CLE – Jones is a third baseman by trade, but that's basically the only spot where Cleveland is set as Jose Ramirez currently occupies the hot corner. The remainder of the spots on the diamond are largely up for grabs. Jake Bauers and Bobby Bradley are battling for the first base job, though both players have their faults. Eddie Rosario signed a one-year deal with the club in the offseason and would likely seek a long-term deal elsewhere if he succeeds this season.  Franmil Reyes remains inconsistent at DH, while center field is currently a black hole. Jones is arguably Cleveland's top hitting prospect and went 3-for-8 with four walks in eight games this spring. Though he will begin the season in the minors, Cleveland is in full rebuilding mode following the Francisco Lindor blockbuster deal, so Jones could be up with the club as early as this summer if all goes according to plan.

Yasel Antuna, SS, WAS – Antuna will be a prospect to watch after a strong showing at the alternate site in 2020. The switch-hitting infielder with pop underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018. While his mate from the 2016 J-2 class Luis Garcia has already made it to the majors, Antuna has yet to appear above Low-A. That will obviously change this season with him possibly starting the year at Triple-A. Antuna is arguably the top hitting prospect in a fairly weak system, but offers the opportunity to show his progress and development at 21. He is currently under the radar, but remains a stellar candidate for a breakout campaign.

JJ Bleday, OF, MIA – Bleday will not be on the Opening Day roster for the Fish, although he could be fast-tracked to the big leagues if he gets off to a hot start. The 2019 No. 4 overall selection was impressive at the alternate site in 2020 and in Spring Training with two home runs and one steal in 26 at-bats while also posting a .364 OBP. As with many prospects drafted in the last two years, Bleday has not had much on-field experience as a professional, but that will change in 2021. The entire Marlins' outfield will be free agents after this season, setting the stage for Bleday to take over full-time at one of the vacant spots.

CHECK STATUS

Akil Baddoo, OF, DET – The Rule 5 draft pick from the Twins has been scalding hot in the spring hitting .333 with a .463 OBP, four home runs, nine RBI and three steals through 33 at-bats while drawing eight walks and only fanning 11 times. A second-round pick in 2016, Baddoo showed double-digit power and speed at Low-A in 2018, but needed reconstructive elbow surgery in 2019.  He appears to be fully healthy with an intriguing combination of power, speed and plate discipline. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but at 22 Baddoo finds himself on the perfect team for opportunity. He suddenly looks like a lock to make the roster, though his role remains to be seen.

Antoine Kelly, P, MIL – Kelly's development has been extremely promising, though he is currently on the mend after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in November. He will not be ready even for the delayed start to the minor league season in May and may not pitch in the minors until the summer. Kelly has physical gifts as a 6-6 athletic southpaw whose fastball can come close to triple digits. The 2020 alternate site allowed him to work on his off-speed pitches, most notably his slider and changeup. The surgery will certainly push back Kelly's timeline and he hasn't seen much time in professional ball as it is. Drafted out of junior college, he's an intriguing arm that will require some time in the minors, but boasts frontline potential if everything pans out.

Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN – Alex Kirilloff received more publicity this spring, but was sent to the alternate site after struggling at the dish. Meanwhile, Larnach battled a hamstring issue but has remained with the club. He's got superb power from the left side and projects to play in left field, which is not exactly blocked at this time as the Twins could run out a platoon of Brent Rooker and Jake Cave. They would have loved for Kirilloff to have asserted himself and take hold of the job, but instead it is Larnach who is 4-for-11 with two home runs and three RBI. Larnach is also a year older than Kirilloff and may not end up making the roster either right off the bat, but he should get a chance to debut this season.

Colton Welker, 1B/3B, COL – The unthinkable happened in the offseason when Nolan Arenado was actually dealt away from the Rockies. Suddenly, the cornerstone of the franchise for years was gone, leaving a gaping hole at a position that was filled in Colorado for many seasons. Ryan McMahon was initially penciled in at the hot corner, although the versatile infielder will likely shift over to second base due to the hamstring injury to Brendan Rodgers. Welker came up as a third baseman, but was moved to first base due to the presence of the aforementioned Arenado.  Now, the Rockies may end up playing him at third. Josh Fuentes is also there, but does not offer the same power potential or pedigree as Welker. While Welker has been optioned to the minors, it is worth noting his path to the big leagues has changed significantly - and to his benefit.

DOWNGRADE

Jose Garcia, SS, CIN – The Reds would have loved nothing more than for Garcia to seize the everyday shortstop job. Instead, he struggled in 2020 and continued that during the spring by failing to record a single base hit in 14 at-bats. To make matters worse, fellow infield prospect Jonathan India played well and the infield has been shuffled around to allow India to play second, Mike Moustakas to play third, and Eugenio Suarez to cover short. Garcia is only 22 and still has plenty of time to become a staple at shortstop for the Reds. However, he's already missed a couple of opportunities and will begin the season in the minors.

Greg Jones, SS, TB – A first round pick in 2019, Jones strained his left quadriceps and will likely miss the next two months. He's a switch-hitting speedster, so certainly any lower body/extremity injury is cause for concern. Jones is not considered close to the big leagues despite his college pedigree, and due to unfortunate timing has been unable to gain much professional experience.  His 2021 campaign will be delayed after only getting a taste of the alternate site in 2020. Add in a crowded middle infield ahead of him, including Wander Franco, Xavier Edwards and Vidal Brujan, and Jones is left with plenty to prove once he returns.

Garrett Crochet, P, CHW – Crochet skyrocketed to the big leagues the same year he was drafted by tossing six scoreless innings in five appearances. While he could eventually transition back to the starting rotation, he will be used for now in the White Sox bullpen and will significantly depress his fantasy value. Liam Hendriks also inked a three-year deal with the club to be the closer this offseason, so Crochet will likely be a setup man. The White Sox already have fellow prospect Michael Kopech waiting in the wings for a shot at the big league rotation, so Crochet's stint in the bullpen could end up being more than just temporary. He boasts a blazing fastball, while his changeup and slider are emerging offerings. How those secondary pitches develop will go a long way towards determining Crochet's future role, and with it how he is viewed as a fantasy commodity.

Daz Cameron, OF, DET – At 24, the clock is ticking for Cameron to make an impact for the Tigers - if it's ever going to happen. He was recently optioned to the minors after missing the first part of camp with an elbow injury, then going just 1-for-9 in limited action. If Cameron can't make the outfield on this rebuilding team, it's doubtful he can ever be a starter in the Majors. He hit .193 in 59 plate appearances in 2020 with the big club while fanning 19 times and only drawing two walks in 17 games. In his best case scenario, Cameron could produce double-digits in both home runs and stolen bases, but it does not appear he will ever hit for average. He's a solid defender who may have more real life value than fantasy value. Cameron has certainly lost the sheen from his prospect luster, as he isn't even the organization's top outfield prospect anymore (Riley Greene).