Bernie on the Scene: AL Central Analysis & Predictions

The American League Central seems a bit clearer to me now.

There has been a slight change in my thinking the last two weeks. 

All payrolls are those of FanGraphs. All lineups and grades are mine.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TWINS
Estimated Payroll: $129M
Estimated Win Total: 92

Lineup: Balanced and Strong

Luis Arraez, LF, BL, Grade C+
The Twins love this guy's bat, and I agree

Josh Donaldson, 3B, BR, Grade  C+
Left Opening Day with a leg injury, and that's the issue here

Nelson Cruz, DH, BR, Grade B-
A lethal hitter, we'll have to see if he can still rake with the best

Jorge Polanco, 2B, BB, Grade C+
I don't see him as a cleanup hitter due to inconsistency

Miguel Sano, 1B, BR,  Grade B-
This guy can be lethal, but beware the huge strikeout totals

Max Kepler, RF, BL, Grade C+
He can get very hot and become a tough out

Byron Buxton, CF, BR, Grade B
Super talented, but can he stay on the field and use his skills?

Mitch Garver, C, BR, Grade C
I think Ryan Jeffers will see plenty of action at catcher as well

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Grade C
He's here for his defense, any offense will be a bonus

Rotation: Top Heavy

Kenta Maeda, RHP, Grade B+
This guy could win the Cy Young if he's allowed to stay in games

Jose Berrios, RHP, Grade B
This is the year he puts it all together at age 26

Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade C
He has to have a career year, and he isn't getting any younger

Matt Shoemaker, RHP, Grade C
I'm not sure how much he has to offer, but he can be solid

J.A. Happ, LHP, Grade C
Not a bad fifth starter for a contending club

Closers: Volatile

Alex Colome, RHP, Grade C
The White Sox chose to go in a different direction from Colome

Taylor Rogers, LHP, Grade C+
I think he'll get plenty of closing chances and succeed

It is only in the last 10 days that I have departed from the White Sox winning the Central. I think the Twins can win it all IF — IF they spend the money for one more starter. They can trade either one of their prospect outfielders in either Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach and improve their club.

The Twins have a potentially lethal lineup with impact hitters like Cruz and Sano as well as Buxton and the inconsistent Kepler. Each of those four can change a game quickly.

I think Maeda is a superb starter, but I worry that manager Rocco Baldeli will bring the hook far too quickly for my liking. I'm very bullish on Berrios as well.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Estimated Payroll: $133M
Estimated Win Total: 89

Lineup: Emerging

Tim Anderson, SS, BR, Grade B
An underrated player on both sides of the ball, he can hit

Adam Eaton, RF, BL, Grade C
I think this is where the White Sox made a huge mistake

Jose Abreu, 1B, BR, Grade A-
I love everything about this RBI machine

Yoan Moncada, 3B, BB, Grade B-
The forgotten man in third base discussions

Yasmani Grandal, C, BB,  Grade B-
Bad knees, but this is a better than average hitter

Luis Robert, CF, BR, Grade B-
Still makes youthful mistakes chasing pitches, but great athlete

Andrew Vaughn, LF, Grade C+
Has been given the chance, now he has to perform

Zack Collins, DH, BL, Grade C+
Came out of nowhere to win the DH role as a catcher

Nick Madrigal, 2B, Grade C
I see him as an average player, but still solid

Rotation: Formidable

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Grade A
Improvement in delivery and repertoire has been off the charts

Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Grade C+
A solid ground-ball throwing machine

Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade B-
I was concerned about some things I saw this spring

Dylan Cease, RHP, Grade B
Could be a huge surprise this season

Carlos Rodon, LHP, Grade B-
If he stays healthy, he'll be outstanding in this role

Closer: Awesome

Liam Hendriks, RHP, Grade A
Has made himself into a lethal strikeout machine

The White Sox may not be able to make up for 30 or more home runs and 80 or more RBIs they lost with the Eloy Jimenez injury.  His loss weakens the entire lineup, as they won't be seeing the same type of pitches without Jimenez.

I think the White Sox should have made a play for either George Springer or Marcell Ozuna with Mr. Reinsdorf's money. I said it at the time that Adam Eaton is not the answer in right field, and I watched as he made a brutal three-base error. The new kid on the block is Yermin Mercedes, who caught the eye of manager Tony La Russa.

I am concerned about the mechanics and lower body weight I saw this spring regarding Lance Lynn. I think he's a huge upgrade to the rotation, but I worry about injury for him. Michael Kopech waits in the wings if a pitcher falters. I'm looking for a huge year for Dylan Cease. It may take a few starts before his engine heats up in warm weather, but he's my guy for the summer months.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Estimated Payroll: $55M
Estimated Win Total: 80

Lineup: Impotent

Ben Gamel, CF, BL, Grade C
Aggressive hitter, but clearly a platoon player, at best

Cesar Hernandez, 2B, BB, Grade C+
I like his entire game, and he should be leading off

Jose Ramirez, 3B, BB, Grade A-
He will never see pitches to hit and it'll hurt him badly

Eddie Rosario, LF, BL, Grade C+
I was excited until I saw more of him and it wasn't pretty

Franmil Reyes, DH, BR, Grade C+
If he gains plate discipline, he can be dynamic

Josh Naylor, RF, BL, Grade C
I just don't see what he brings to the lineup

Jake Bauers, 1B, BL, Grade C-
This job should belong to Bobby Bradley as Bauers can't hit

Roberto Perez, C, BR, Grade C
Less weight and a strong shoulder have helped him

Andres Gimenez, SS, BL, Grade B-
Indians fans are going to love this young man

Rotation: Weakened and Overrated

Shane Bieber, RHP, Grade A
Has lost 2 mph on his fastball early and doesn't look as unbeatable

Zach Plesac, RHP, Grade B-
Has to harness his stuff and show he is a No. 2 starter

Aaron Civale, RHP, Grade C+
We have to see if he can build upon his strong beginnings

Logan Allen, LHP, Grade C
The most improved Indians pitcher I saw this spring

Triston McKenzie, RHP, Grade C+
Has great stuff but is having trouble with command

Closers: Who Gets The Job?

James Karinchak, RHP, Grade B-
Great fastball, but can get very wild when he overthrows

Nick Wittgren, RHP, Grade C+
Reliable and steady, Francona knows him and trusts him

Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Grade B
The best of the lot with a blazing fastball, he'll win the job

Simply put, the Indians can't score runs. They don't have run producers in their lineup, and Ramirez may never see a pitch to hit. Poor decisions by Terry Francona, who can do no wrong in the eyes of ownership or the front office, have led to Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel, two utility players now in key roles. 

Trying to make Amed Rosario a centerfielder in the last week of spring training was a horrible move. They have had three seasons to fix the position, and they didn't

I believe the starting pitching will implode, leading to them having to fight to beat out Kansas City for third place in the standings.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Estimated Payroll: $92M
Estimated Win Total: 79

Lineup: Exciting and Refreshing

Whit Merrifield, 2B, BR, Grade A-
This is a terrific baseball player and is now in his right role

Andrew Benintendi, LF, BL, Grade C
Still a huge disappointment with the bat

Carlos Santana, 1B, BB, Grade C+
An on-base machine looks like he is renewed

Salvador Perez, C, BR, Grade B
This is a fine hitter, a team leader and a wonderful player

Jorge Soler, DH, BR, Grade B-
This guy can change a game with tremendous power

Hunter Dozier, 3B, BR, Grade C+
The Royals love him, and I saw him hit some spring bombs

Kyle Isbel, RF, BL, Grade C+
I was surprised he made the club, but he'll platoon here

Michael Taylor, CF, BR, Grade C
I'm not a fan of his offense, but he does have some speed

Nicky Lopez, 2B, BL, Grade D+
He can't hit and will lose his job to Bobby Witt Jr.

Rotation:  Very Problematic

Brad Keller, RHP, Grade C
Straight fastballs and no strikeouts won't play in fantasy

Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B-
I think he'll be a true sleeper based on what I saw this spring

Brady Singer, RHP, Grade C
Still learning and I expect his grade improves by late summer

Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade C
Not what I'm looking for in my fantasy rotation

Closer: I've Seen This Movie

Greg Holland, RHP
Now 35, I think he has to give way to someone like Josh Staumont soon

The Royals have some potent hitters in Merrifield, Soler and Dozier. Santana is a savvy hitter as well. Once Bobby Witt Jr. arrives, Nicky Lopez will be gone.

The team begins the season without shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, who is out with an oblique strain. That's a tough injury for a speedster like Mondesi.

The pitching is flat-out miserable. I do like Minor and Singer to carry the pitching this season.

The bullpen is even worse than the rotation. So, the offense will have to score plenty of runs, which I think it can.

Soler hits home runs so hard and so far, I don't think huge Kaufman Stadium will impact him. I see the club being right on the heels of the Indians all season.

DETROIT TIGERS
Estimated Payroll: $85M
Estimated Win Total: 70

Robbie Grossman, LF, BB, Grade C
Great eye at the plate makes him good as leadoff hitter

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, BB, Grade C+
An improving hitter on the brink of a true breakout

Willi Castro, SS, BB, Grade B-
Gets lost among great shortstops, but this guy can hit

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Grade B
This guy is still a great hitter even at age 38

Jonathan Schoop, 2B, BR, Grade C
He can still run, but he may not keep this role

Nomar Mazara, DH, BL, Grade C-
I see few redeeming qualities in this platoon option

Wilson Ramos, C, BR, Grade C
There are worse hitting catchers than Ramos

Victor Reyes, RF, BB, Grade C
Adds some speed, but not great power

JaCoby Jones, CF, Grade C
Adds power to the back end of the lineup and can be dangerous

Rotation: Mostly Young and Maturing

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Grade C+
Handcuffed the Indians on opening day, but has control issues

Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade C
Castoff starter looks to find a new home in Detroit's rotation

Tarik Skubal, LHP, Grade C+
One of several high quality young starters getting a chance

Jose Urena, RHP, Grade C
I wonder if the change of leagues helps him or hurts him?

Casey Mize, RHP, Grade C+
He will look much better and more confident by September

Closer: Committee Time

Gregory Soto, LHP
Flame-thrower with huge control and command issues; Bryan Garcia, Buck Farmer or Daniel Norris, among others could close

The Tigers will reflect manager A.J. Hinch. They will force errors on the opposition by taking chances. They will run. They will steal. They will try to get an extra base and they'll be successful at that type of game. Hinch is a brilliant manager.

Watch for Rule 5 import Akil Baddoo to grab playing time and bring plenty of power to the club. He'll get chances in the outfield and at DH.

I think the young pitching staff will grow during the season and get better and better. Soon we will also see Spencer Turnbull and Matt Manning get their time on the mound.

The Tigers are on the right track. Keep in mind that Miguel Cabrera consumes $30M of their payroll. He gets paid until 2023 with mutual $30M options for 2024 and 2025.

HEADING HOME

We saw some dreadful starting pitching performances on Opening Day. Was it just too cold?

Were the arms not ready? Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Gibson, Brad Keller and Kevin Gausman looked awful.

How about Zack Greinke? 6.0IP, 3H, 4K. That was beautiful. And Tyler Glasnow against Sandy Alcantara was epic. Alcantara was terrific as well and is an emerging star. His offense won't help him.

We can't make too much of the first few games in a season. Stay the course. Don't panic.

• The COVID outbreaks that have put the Nationals in jeopardy should have never happened. And GM Mike Rizzo was among those that were impacted.

• Trevor Bauer took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. In the sixth, he ran the bases. I warned on Twitter that running the bases could be problematic. When he came out to start the seventh, Bauer was bombed. He barely escaped with the win after pitching a gem for six innings. He yielded three hits and four runs, including homers by Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon. Running the bases takes a great deal of energy from a pitcher.

• The new 2021 phenom? None other than the White Sox Yermin Mercedes. Mercedes served as  DH on Friday and went 5-for-5, scored a run and drove in four. He's a hot number on waiver wires. He reminds me of a slightly less bulky edition of the Twins' Willians Astudillo.

• Thanks to all those who have participated in the two Bernie on the Scene fantasy league auctions. I hope you have a great season with us. Our Commissioner, Derek Simon, does a terrific job. Thank you Derek for keeping Bernie on the Scene leagues on the rails.

• Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff and at Forbes.com.