Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

While the focus on the Seattle farm system has been on bats like Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Noelvi Marte, the young pitching may also soon bear fruit. James Paxton's bad luck has continued on the injury front, as he is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entirety of 2021. Marco Gonzales has imploded in his first two starts as the de facto ace of the staff. Justus Sheffield and Chris Flexen are likely to be inconsistent while Justin Dunn can't seem to find the plate. Add in Seattle going with a six-man rotation, and names like Logan Gilbert and George Kirby could soon be summoned to the big leagues. Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick from 2020, is also a polished collegian. At least two of these hurlers will end up in the starting rotation before the end of the season, and likely even sooner.

As we wait for the minor league season to begin, here are some players worth keeping on your radar.

UPGRADE

Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF, LAD – McKinstry has been among the more pleasant surprises early this season. He burst onto the scene in 2019 with a stellar stint at Double-A where he slashed .279/.352/.455 with 12 home runs, 52 RBI and eight steals in 95 contests, and followed that by torching the pitching at Triple-A over the final month hitting .382 with seven home runs and 26 RBI. A 33rd round pick in 2016, McKinstry was aiming for a utility role with the big club this season with the departure of Enrique Hernandez. Not only did he make the team, but he's played much more than expected due to recent injuries to Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts. McKinstry is hitting .321 with two home runs and 10 RBI in nine games for the Dodgers and has benefited from his positional versatility. It appears the club has found a diamond in the rough.

Emmanuel Clase, P, CLE – Relievers do not normally get much time on prospect lists, but Clase has been spotless so far in 2021 after a rough 2020. A PED suspension and an injury left last season a wash, but he came into the season with renewed energy and has recorded two saves and a win in four contests. Clase has only allowed one hit over four innings while walking one batter and fanning six. Cleveland is using a closer-by-committee approach with Clase, Nick Wittgren and James Karinchak, but Clase's unblemished record along with the two saves (Wittgren has one while Karinchak doesn't have any yet) should give him the inside edge at the highest of leverage positions.

Triston Casas, 1B, BOS – The struggles of Bobby Dalbec to begin the season have only heightened the excitement for Casas, a left-handed power bat who would not be shifting positions, who draws plenty of walks and performed impressively at the alternate site in 2020. The Red Sox' top prospect is only 21, but has flashed an advanced approach at the dish by flexing the ability to hit to all fields. Casas is likely to start the season at Double-A, but calls for him could come as early as the summer if Boston continue to have an empty void at first.

Corbin Carroll, OF, ARI – For whatever reason, Carroll is one of the lesser talked about top prospects. Perhaps it's his size, or lack thereof at 5-10, 165. However, his bat speed and swing trajectory are top-notch and will allow for home run power. Carroll is also a speedy centerfielder with an excellent makeup who will hit for average. As a teenager, he spent time at the alternate site gaining valuable experience against much older players. Carroll offers the chance to be a five-tool player despite his stature.

CHECK STATUS

Matthew Allan, P, NYM – The Mets may have caught a huge break when Allan slid to No. 89 in the 2019 Draft. He spent 2020 at the alternate site where he wowed with his superior fastball and stellar curveball. The development of a third pitch - in this case, a changeup - has really turned heads and has made Allan a more complete starter. The canceled minor league season of 2020 will lead to some unusual assignments once the season starts in May, but Allan may have been better served by the cancellation than most. Instead of a focus on results, the focus was strictly on development and Allan has taken this opportunity and run with it.

Alejandro Kirk, C, TOR – Kirk made the Blue Jays as the backup catcher to Danny Jansen, and the two catchers are virtually polar opposites. Jansen is a superior defensive catcher with a lifetime .208 batting average during his time in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Kirk's defense is adequate at best and certainly does not look the part of a professional athlete. However, he never hit below .288 at any level of the minors, has drawn more walks than strikeouts during his brief professional career and has terrific contact skills with the bat. Kirk hit .375 in 24 at-bats in 2020 in a cup of coffee with the Jays. The split in playing time has been fairly even, with Jansen appearing in six games while Kirk has played in five. Unfortunately, Kirk has yet to record a hit, though Jansen himself has just two in 19 at-bats. If Kirk can find his footing, the Jays will likely be forced to find a spot for his bat in their lineup, even despite his defensive deficiencies.

Tanner Houck, P, BOS – Houck is an interesting hurler to watch simply based upon the lack of legitimate options for the Red Sox in their starting rotation. He started the season on the big league roster as Eduardo Rodriguez suffered from dead arm. In fact, Houck started the second game of the season pitching five innings allowing two earned runs on six hits while only walking one and fanning eight. Rodriguez is back, which resulted in Houck being sent to the bullpen and then optioned to the alternate site. Houck has a low arm slot and a funky delivery, but has performed well when called upon since 2020. At 24, the former first-round pick will almost certainly make more starts for the Red Sox this season, as the back end of the rotation with Garrett Richards, Nick Pivetta and Martin Perez does not exactly inspire much confidence.

Garrett Mitchell, OF, MIL – First and foremost, Mitchell has elite contact skills. A first-round selection in last year's draft, he stood out during spring training despite never having played in the minors due to the canceled 2020 campaign by slashing .367/.406/.567 with one home run, six RBI and three steals across 30 at-bats. The high slugging percentage is particularly intriguing, as Mitchell was not known for his power at Tulane despite being 6-3, 215. If his power can be unlocked, he should skyrocket through the organization and could emerge as one of baseball's top prospects due to his polish at the dish and his speed.

DOWNGRADE

Heston Kjerstad, OF, BAL – Kjerstad battled COVID and had some complications in the form of myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart. Although he is expected to make a full recovery, he has not yet joined the organization. The No. 2 pick in 2020, Kjerstad was a surprise selection at that spot as he boasts significant power but there are questions whether he can hit for average and doesn't draw as many walks as expected. In addition, his fielding leaves much to be desired and he is not a speedster by any stretch. It is obviously important to get these health issues squared away first, but it cannot be denied Kjerstad will get a late start with the O's and his swing mechanics will need tinkering. He was not a candidate to play in the big leagues in 2021 anyway, though he will need to catch up when he eventually arrives in the minors.

Luis Garcia, P, HOU – Garcia has received a lot of fanfare over the last couple of years, particularly due to his massive strikeout rate in 2019. He appeared in a couple of games in 2020, but made the Astros' starting rotation out of camp this season. However, Garcia was roughed up in his first outing of the season allowing four hits and three walks in 3.1 innings while only striking out one.  He offers four pitches, though his curveball lags behind his fastball, changeup and cutter. The Astros remain hopeful Garcia can stick in the rotation, though there are questions as to whether he would be better suited for high leverage relief work due to his delivery as well as his penchant for wildness. For now, he will stay in the Houston rotation, but his future role remains very much up in the air.

Pavin Smith, 1B/OF, ARI – Smith may end up making a better real life player than fantasy commodity. His greatest asset is his plate discipline having drawn 143 walks and striking out 150 times over 294 minor league games. Smith also produced five walks and eight strikeouts in 12 games of limited action with the big club in 2020. Unfortunately, his power has never truly materialized with a combined 23 home runs in the minors. Smith has yet to hit a long ball this season, and oddly enough has failed to draw a walk in six games. While he could see extra at-bats in the short term due to injuries, his value as a first baseman or corner outfielder is extremely limited if his power stroke doesn't take hold.

Adbert Alzolay, P, CHC – The Cubs could really use a legitimate starter from their farm system.  Cubs fans in their 20s may not even know who Kerry Wood or Mark Prior are. Alzolay is already 26 and does not have that kind of upside, but did fan 29 batters in 21.1 innings in limited work last season. He won the No. 5 starter spot out of camp, but scuffled in his first start giving up four earned runs in five innings against the Brewers. Alzolay has battled control problems in the past, which would be his biggest hindrance to sticking in the rotation. If he cannot find the strike zone, he may be better suited for the bullpen. Alec Mills, whom Alzolay beat out for the fifth slot, is currently in the bullpen but will get plenty of starts this year.