Marco Gonzales

32-Year-Old PitcherSP

Pittsburgh Pirates

15-Day IL

Injury Forearm

Est. Return 5/1/2024

2024 Stats

W-L

0-0

ERA

2.65

WHIP

1.18

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Gonzales has shown quality durability since joining the Mariners in 2017, but he was limited to just 10 starts and 50 innings due to a flexor strain that caused nerve irritation in his left elbow. The southpaw posted a 5.22 ERA in that timeframe, but he allowed no more than two runs in six of his ten starts, and eight of the 29 runs allowed came in one disastrous start against the Red Sox. The 31-year-old has never had anything close to an elite fastball, and his 89 mph fastball ranked near the bottom of velocity leaders in 2023. He also was well below-average in generating swings-and-misses and strikeouts, but his changeup and curve continued to get hitters to chase and help limit hard contact. Gonzales is due $12.3 million this season and was flipped from Seattle to Atlanta and then to Pittsburgh via multiple offseason trades. If healthy, he should provide bulk innings for the Pirates, but offers a low floor and a low ceiling in fantasy. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#584

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 199

DOB 2/16/1992

Born Fort Collins, CO

College Gonzaga

Drafted 1st Rd 2013 STL

Lands on IL

PPittsburgh Pirates

Forearm

April 14, 2024

The Pirates placed Gonzales on the 15-day injured list Sunday with a left forearm muscle strain, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Gonzales was able to turn in his second straight quality start in Saturday's 4-3 loss to the Phillies, but he evidently was pitching with an arm injury at some point during that outing and will now be shut down for at least the next two and a half weeks. The Pirates recalled Ryder Ryan from Triple-A Indianapolis to take Gonzales' spot on the active roster and provide a heathy arm out of the bullpen in the short term, but the focus now turns to whom Pittsburgh will tab as the veteran lefty's replacement in the rotation. Top prospect Paul Skenes turned in a dominant 3.1-inning start with Indianapolis on Friday and would line up for Gonzales' spot in the rotation, if the Pirates feel ready to bring the 21-year-old to the majors. Quinn Priester also pitched Saturday for Indianapolis and, unlike Skenes, already has a spot on the 40-man roster, so he could represent another potential Gonzales replacement.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Marco Gonzales generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Marco Gonzales generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

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% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-2%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-36%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-9%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-4%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.267	239	41	20	56	11	0	8
Since 2022vs Right	.272	828	107	53	208	51	0	28
2024vs Left	.167	19	6	1	3	0	0	1
2024vs Right	.261	50	5	4	12	4	0	0
2023vs Left	.262	48	8	5	11	5	0	0
2023vs Right	.288	167	26	13	44	9	0	5
2022vs Left	.280	172	27	14	42	6	0	7
2022vs Right	.268	611	76	36	152	38	0	23
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-29%

ERA at Home

2024

-18%

ERA on Road

2023

-47%

ERA at Home

2022

-26%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.60	1.14	137.2	7	6	0	5.7	2.2	1.0
Since 2022Away	5.05	1.60	112.1	7	10	0	4.9	3.2	1.6
2024Home	3.00	0.83	6.0	0	0	0	6.0	0.0	0.0
2024Away	2.45	1.36	11.0	0	0	0	5.7	4.1	0.8
2023Home	3.77	1.19	28.2	1	0	0	6.9	3.1	0.3
2023Away	7.17	1.83	21.1	3	1	0	5.1	3.4	1.7
2022Home	3.58	1.15	103.0	6	6	0	5.3	2.0	1.3
2022Away	4.84	1.58	80.0	4	9	0	4.7	3.0	1.7
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Stat Review

How does Marco Gonzales compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.20

K/9

5.8

BB/9

2.6

HR/9

0.5

Fastball

90.2 mph

ERA

2.65

WHIP

1.18

BABIP

.275

GB/FB

1.57

Left On Base

80.6%

Swinging Strike

8.6%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Potential trade candidate

PSeattle Mariners

November 15, 2022

Gonzales could be dealt by the Mariners this winter, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.

ANALYSIS
Gonzales wasn't a candidate to start a playoff game but remained a capable innings-eater last season. There are doubts about how long that will last. His 4.13 ERA looks worse when considering the overall drop in offense last season as well as Seattle's pitcher-friendly park, and his 13.2 percent strikeout rate was low. The lefty remains under team control through 2024 at an affordable price and comes with a club option for 2025, but his lack of whiffs will likely suppress his trade market.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

How long can Gonzales remain a part of a big-league rotation while allowing this much contact? That's a question which could be answered as soon as this season. While the veteran lefty has never been a pitcher who relies on whiffs, his 13.2 K% in 2022 was startlingly low. No other qualified starter finished within three points of that mark; Dallas Keuchel matched that figure in 2021 and pitched himself out of the league one year later. That represents the downside for Gonzales, who lacks the strong groundball rates Keuchel could fall back on, and the upside for a pitcher whose fastball averaged 88.7 mph isn't particularly high, either. That said, it's not all doom and gloom for the southpaw. Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park helps limit the damage in his home starts, and his 6.4 BB% helped keep his ERA to a passable 4.13. That's enough to keep Gonzales a viable endgame play in deeper leagues as long as he has a rotation spot, but a further drop in strikeouts could cost him that role.

Gonzales is the type of pitcher who gets better results than his stuff would indicate but could fall off a cliff quickly. This past season saw him win double-digit games for the third time in his career with a fourth consecutive season with an ERA of 4.00 or lower. The big difference with this last season was the underlying skills were much different and should provide pause for 2022. He is still a pitcher who survives by working the periphery of the zone and messing with timing, but the 1.8 HR/9 last season is unsightly, and the abnormally-high 82.2 LOB% and abnormally-low .239 BABIP are what led to him posting an ERA 1.1 runs below his 5.06 FIP. His HR/FB rate was higher than in any other full season, but it's a reminder of what can go wrong when someone who has below-average stuff across the board isn't sharp as an extreme flyball pitcher. This selection will not feel good, so it's probably best to let someone else make this roster move.

Gonzales parlayed the highest strikeout and lowest walk rate of his career into his best season ever. His resultant 20.6 K-BB% ranked 16th among qualified starters. While this is impressive, it's not commensurate with his elite ratios. Gonzales altered his pitch mix, throwing more cutters and sinkers in lieu of fewer changeups. It's unclear if the tweak is the reason or if it's a sample-size effect, but Gonzales' curveball, cutter and sinker all missed more bats. If he's able to maintain his strikeout gains, not only does that directly boost his fantasy production, but it also softens the variance he's experienced the past few seasons. In addition, more whiffs will offset the likely increase of his career-low 2.5 BB%. If the room wants to chase 2020's surface stats, don't get in the way, but if there's pause, don't hesitate to draft Gonzales. At worst, he can be streamed at home.

Gonzales illustrates pitching volatility. His ERAs the past two seasons are nearly identical: 4.00 in 2018 and 3.99 last season. The thing is, he was a significantly better pitcher two years ago but was unlucky. In 2019, the luck happened to reverse. To wit, Gonzales' 2018 xFIP was 3.59 with a 3.81 SIERA. Last year they were 5.11 and 5.08, respectively. Driving the difference was a drop in strikeouts combined with poorer control along with an uptick in HR/9. His 2019 K-BB% was 10.5%, down six points from the prior campaign. While variance affects all hurlers, it tends to manifest more on those with low strikeout rates and Gonzales' 17% mark was well below average. Now over three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Gonzales is durable, the prototypical innings eater. His volatility is a mixed-league risk, but his better skills at home render the southpaw an option in leagues conducive to streaming.

Gonzales enjoyed a bounce-back season with Seattle thanks in part to a new cutter that gave him another weapon to attack righties. Righties crushed him in St. Louis in 2017 to the tune of .346/.388/.566, so Gonzales added a cutter and that slash line improved to .266/.309/.418 last season. His 4.00 ERA feels out of place for a pitcher with a 1.22 WHIP and a 16.5 K-BB%. Gonzales does not have another level when it comes to strikeouts, but the improving walk rate is encouraging for him since he averages more than a hit allowed per inning. As long as he can limit his walks, the extra hits get offset. The innings spike looks greater than it was -- Gonzales logged 126.1 innings between the minors and majors in 2017 in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. There is some concern for a letdown in 2019, but Gonzales has job security and a favorable home park, so he's at least in the mix as a streamer.

Gonzales returned from Tommy John surgery last season, making 11 appearances (eight starts) with the Mariners after coming over from St. Louis in a July trade. The results were ugly, but the top estimators point to the lefty being at least a run better than his ERA would suggest (5.06 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 4.48 SIERA). His strikeout rate was modest at 7.2 K/9 and Gonzales had trouble with the long ball (1.80 HR/9), but he posted a strong walk rate for the year (2.5 BB/9) and his numbers at Triple-A were solid. Gonzales was excellent in seven relief innings (24.1 K-BB percentage) and he finished strong overall, posting a 2.81 ERA in September. As things stand, Gonzales appears likely to serve as Seattle's swingman to open 2018. That puts him just an injury away from starts, and of course the top two arms in the Mariners' rotation (James Paxton and Felix Hernandez) have dealt with a slew of injuries in recent years.

After missing 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Gonzales is unlikely to be back pitching in games until a month or two into the 2017 season. He will almost certainly spend time at Triple-A Memphis once healthy due to the fact that he is yet to impress in the majors and seemed to take a step back in the minors before he went under the knife. Over 14 starts with Memphis in 2015 (when he most recently pitched), Gonzales really struggled to retire the opposition, as batters hit .317 with him on the mound. He was much better at Triple-A in 2014, and it is possible his elbow was already an issue during his struggles in 2015. His stuff profiles better at the back of a big league rotation than in the bullpen, so he should continue to be developed as a starter, but given the Cardinals' rotation depth it is unclear when he will get a legitimate look in that role as long as he remains in this organization.

Gonzales’ proximity to the big leagues is the selling point and his lack of upside is a reason to look elsewhere in dynasty leagues. He will never be more than a No. 3 starter, and of course he’s far from a lock to actualize that ceiling. Assuming Carlos Martinez is over the shoulder issues that plagued him at the end of the year, Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons are all on the outside looking in on the rotation heading into spring training. Gonzales had his own shoulder issues in the first half of last season, which may have contributed to his shaky run in the Pacific Coast League, but he will nonetheless be relying more on stuff and reputation than tangible success. Meanwhile, Cooney and Lyons can both point to successful, albeit brief runs in the MLB rotation last season, so Gonzales should enter camp as an underdog to serve as the first choice to fill in if someone in the rotation goes down with an injury.

Gonzales was terrific for the Cardinals when called upon in 2014, posting a 4.12 ERA in seven starts and striking out 39 in 43.2 innings. His xFIP of 2.94 shows just how good he was and going into his age-23 season, there's a lot for Cardinals fans and fantasy owners to be excited about. Arguably the organization's top pitching prospect entering 2014, Gonzales has a legitimate shot to crack the Cardinals' rotation in 2015 following the departure of Shelby Miller. He'll have to beat out fellow phenom Carlos Martinez along with oft-injured Jaime Garcia. Gonzales clearly has the talent to do so and if he gets the chance, he could be a great fantasy asset. However, the Cardinals could choose to develop Gonzales the same way they have Martinez, who was relegated to bullpen duties despite arguably being St. Louis' best pitcher last spring.

Gonzales was the Cardinals' first-round pick out of Gonzaga University in the 2013 draft. The lefty is a high-floor pitcher, but he doesn't have a ton of upside and could work his way to the majors late this season. In his first season as a professional, Gonzales posted a 2.70 ERA in 23.1 innings, striking out 23 while walking eight. It's an extremely small sample size, and the Cardinals will have a much better idea of what they have in the 22-year-old after a few months in Double-A, where he should start the 2014 season.

More Fantasy News

Provides quality start Saturday

PPittsburgh Pirates

April 14, 2024

Gonzales came away with a no-decision in Saturday's 4-3 loss to the Phillies, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out five.