Draft night 2008: O.J. Mayo was traded for Kevin Love and Mike Miller. December 27 2009: would you rather have Mayo or Love on your fantasy team? What about on your real team?
Mayo was the immediate leader in this comparison last season as he started from day one and, much like Brandon Jennings this season, began the year with a string of big scoring efforts that established him as a possible star. Even though he cooled off later in the season, Mayo's big start and solid efforts throughout earned him second place in the Rookie of the Year vote and his solid fantasy numbers (#55 on Y! player rater) made him an upper-mid round pick in most leagues this year (Yahoo ADP 51).
Love, on the other hand, started his rookie season off the bench for the Timberwolves and even his strong play after Al Jefferson went down couldn't get him onto the First Team of the All Rookie squad. His overall fantasy numbers from his rookie year were therefore pedestrian (#120 on Y! player rater) and that, combined with a broken hand this offseason, made him more of a mid-round speculative pick in most leagues this season (Yahoo ADP 89.1).
There were hints last year though, especially for us basketball stat geeks, that perhaps Love would be the better play moving forward. If you take a closer look at their rookie numbers, a lot of Mayo's advantages were just because he played 38 minutes per game instead of Love's 25 minutes. On a per-36 minute basis, rookie Love (15.8 points, 12.9 boards, 79|PERCENT| FT on 5.9 FTA and 46|PERCENT| FG) actually looked a lot more impressive than rookie Mayo (17.5 points, 3.6 boards, 3.0 assists, 1.7 treys, 44|PERCENT| FG). This was reflected in the advanced stats, where Love had a higher PER (18.3 vs 14.2), more win shares despite playing more than 1000 fewer minutes (5.3 vs 3.4), a higher Offense Rating (112 vs 103) and a lower defense rating (109 vs 112). Love also had a small lead in on-court/off-court +/-, though both he and Mayo measured as small negatives in that stat. On the whole, stat geeks would have predicted that Love would soon far outstrip Mayo based on their rookie seasons.
And based on what we've seen thus far this year, the stat geeks were right. Mayo has the higher Yahoo! rating by totals because Love missed the first month with the hand injury, but by-average Mayo is rated #78 while Love is flirting with the elite at #21 overall. Mayo is still playing more minutes per game, but the gap is closing (38 mpg for Mayo, 32 mpg for Love). Meanwhile, the per-36 minute stats show why Love is pulling away. Love has caught Mayo in all of Mayo's previous advantages, as they are almost mirror images in the perimeter categories (Mayo: 16.7 points, 2.8 assists, 1.3 treys, 1.1 steals vs Love: 16.7 points, 2.7 assists, 0.9 treys, 1.1 steals per 36 minutes). But Love is dominating on the glass 14.8 boards/36 (3.6 boards for Mayo) and also having a larger impact on the shooting percentages (48|PERCENT| FG, 81|PERCENT| FT on 4.6 FTA/36 vs Mayo's 46|PERCENT| FG, 84|PERCENT| FT on 3.1 FTA). Thus, it isn't surprising that Love is dominating all of the advanced stats this season (22.7 PER vs 14.7, 119/105 ORTG/DRTG vs 110/113), almost equivalent win shares even though Love has only played for a few weeks . Even the on-court/off-court +/- matchup has become a blowout, with Love measuring at +12.6 vs Mayo's -0.5.
Mayo has more flash and the aesthetically pleasing game, but Love has pretty sizable advantages in impact in both real life as well as fantasy and now looks like a much better bet for stardom than his draft-night trade partner